Percy Harvin Trade: Quick RotoAdvice

Mercy-Percy

Percy Harvin was traded. It was surprising. There were tears shed, both in joy and heartbreak.

So what does it mean for fantasy? Here’s our Quick RotoAdvice on the topic.

For Harvin:

He leaves the Seahawks for the Jets, who run on average about 7 more plays per game, which means about three passes per game. That means that Harvin probably won’t get much more attention or volume than we predicted before the season for Harvin, which was about 100 targets, 67 catches and 900 total yards. So fantasy wise Harvin is in about the same situation as we thought he’d be in before the season, so he’s still a WR3/Flex play still as long as he gets the snaps with the Jets, which we figure they will because of who we think he’ll replace.

For the Jets:

What this means is that Harvin likely takes the role David Nelson, who had the second most snaps in the receiving corps. He’s also the worst rated WR on the Jets, per Pro Football Focus. Also, the worst rated WR of all NFL receivers getting 25 percent of the snaps. So, one Gator out, another in, Harvin was doing okay efficient wise, even if the Seahawks struggled to figure out how/when to use him by their own leaked admissions post-trade.

For the Seahawks:

There will not be a huge windfall for Seahawks receivers in Harvin’s departure. He wasn’t even on the field the most of the Seahawks playmakers, though he was targeted the most, and as we stated above and in Harvin’s preseason piece, they aren’t a high volume snap or passing team. That won’t change with Harvin being traded.

Here are the SEA leaders in targets last four seasons:

2010: Mike Williams, 106

2011: Doug Baldwin, 85

2012: Sidney Rice, 75

2013: Golden Tate, 93

We had Harvin down for a high side of 100 targets this season — so this isn’t a jackpot for Kearse/Baldwin. There were 68 targets between the top three receivers through the first five games. It’s likely they’ll spread whatever might’ve gone to Harvin around to those guys and now Paul Richardson gets a few here and there.

Summary:

This looks like it will help the Jets because Harvin will be better than Nelson at WR, if that’s the route they choose to go with the playing time. It’s not a given, because, you know, NFL, but that’s how the numbers say should work things out. The impact of that, though, means little to Harvin’s actual value, may raise Geno Smith’s a bit and likely not to impact Eric Decker at all. Jeremy Kerley may see less targets as a result.

For the Seahawks, this may mean a little bump for Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, but like we said above, this isn’t a fantasy changing impact at all. It’s most likely it will be a better locker room move than anything that will impact the fantasy community on the field.

Daily Fantasy Football Picks from RotoAdvice: Week 7

bishop sankey

Check out the Daily RotoAdvice Fantasy Football Picks where we compare this guy to a slot machine.

 

The Quarterbacks:

High $$$ QB:

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina

The Panthers are not so good rushing the passer and the Packers have been better than average there anyway. That leaves the 10th worst pass coverage team going against Rodgers, who looked to have turn some things around in Week 6.

MID-TIER QB:

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis

Seattle should have checked in with the Daily, where they could’ve been reminded that Dallas had the worst run defense in the league and Seattle had a RB that is regularly in beast mode at home. Alas, it’s a lesson that will be taken out on the Rams, who are the ninth worst defense so far this season and Wilson should be the ringmaster of that show.

DISCOUNT RACK QB:

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

I like Derek Carr against the Cardinals, who have been surprisingly bad against the pass this season, but the prospect of Bortles having to pass from behind and getting his first rushing TD of the season is too good to pass up. You may think, hey, what about Brian Hoyer and the surprisingly good Browns offense against the awful Jaguars D? We think the Browns will be able to ride the rushing of Tate, Crowell and West to whatever they want against the Jags, leaving the passing opportunities fewer for Hoyer.

WHO WE’RE STARTING THIS WEEK: Rodgers

The Running Backs:

High $$$ RB:

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis

With A.J. Green out, the load should continue to fall onto Bernard, who has been solid all season. The Colts are third worst against the run, so have to believe between that and trying to limit the amount of snaps Andrew Luck gets against the Bengals porous pass defense, that Bernard will bear a heavy load.

MID-TIER RB:

Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta

Forsett is a double-threat that will come in handy against a leaky Falcons defense. Forsett has gained regular touches and while he’s not the GL back there, he is putting up consistent fantasy points and that should stop at home against Atlanta.

DISCOUNT RACK RB:

Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans vs. Washington

We may be accused of trying to make Bishop Sankey happen and we’re guilty. He SHOULD be the guy even though Shonn Greene still exists. Washington represents another good matchup. We’re not leaving this slot machine until it pays off!

WHO WE’RE STARTING: Bernard and Sankey

The Receivers (WR/TE):

High $$$ Receiver:

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina

Terrific matchup and Nelson is the undisputed top dog in the receiving  chain in Green Bay. For a better value, you could talk yourself into Randall Cobb, but we have to suggest the guy who’s most likely to score more, and that’s Nelson.

MID-TIER Receiver:

Golden Tate, Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans

Still liking Tate, who should be WR1 for DET in a sweet matchup at home against the Saints. The Lions used defense to grind it down last week and kept the passing at a minimum, thus stunting the numbers for Tate. This week, against the Saints, chances are they won’t be able to completely shut down Drew Brees and company, so Tate looks like a solid value play in the mid-tier.

DISCOUNT RACK Receiver:

Jarius Wright, Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo

We’ll take our victory lap on our clairvoyance on Torrey Smith last week (woot!) and now roll the dice on Wright, who has Teddy Bridgewater pitching it to him in Buffalo, who has the eighth worst pass coverage. Wright has been a volume heavy target for Bridgewater and this game provides the opportunity to add to that at a reasonable price across the industry.

WHO WE’RE STARTING: Nelson, Tate, Wright, Torrey Smith (vs. ATL)

More in the Rack (All Positions):

Odell Beckham, New York Giants (Victor Cruz out and even though Dallas isn’t as bad as forecasted before the season, Beckham should come across well.)

Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans (Big play receiver getting some action, finally and has the Washington defense to be able to exploit. I like his chances)

Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (Not believing he’s all done, though it sure has looked like it as late as last week, when he played only 35 snaps. Think the value is too good here not to bet on his history over recency bias.)

Andre Williams, New York Giants (Unlike Seattle, the Giants are sure to bang the ball up the middle and Williams is a good jackhammer in which to do it. He’s not diverse like Rashad Jennings, but against the Cowboys, he should be a solid play.)

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (Discussed above, we like the Raiders to throw against a surprisingly softer Arizona pass defense.)

Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (Has Buffalo, which should be better for Bridgewater than the stifling Lions defense. Bounce back value here.)

 

Weather Watch:

  • NONE! (as of this posting)

 

Top Teams To Target:

  • Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta

  • Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco

  • Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans

  • Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina

 

The Slate:

 

SUN, OCT 19

TIME (ET)

TV

LOCATION

Cincinnati atIndianapolis

1:00 PM

CBS

Lucas Oil Stadium

Atlanta at Baltimore

1:00 PM

FOX

M&T Bank Stadium

Tennessee at Washington

1:00 PM

CBS

FedEx Field

Seattle at St. Louis

1:00 PM

FOX

Edward Jones Dome

Cleveland at Jacksonville

1:00 PM

CBS

EverBank Field

Minnesota at Buffalo

1:00 PM

FOX

Ralph Wilson Stadium

Miami at Chicago

1:00 PM

CBS

Soldier Field

New Orleans at Detroit

1:00 PM

FOX

Ford Field

Carolina at Green Bay

1:00 PM

FOX

Lambeau Field

Kansas City at San Diego

4:05 PM

CBS

Qualcomm Stadium

Arizona at Oakland

4:25 PM

FOX

O.co Coliseum

NY Giants at Dallas

4:25 PM

FOX

AT&T Stadium

San Francisco at Denver

8:30 PM

NBC

Sports Authority Field at Mile High

MON, OCT 20

TIME (ET)

TV

LOCATION

Houston at Pittsburgh

8:30 PM

Heinz Field

Weather and schedules courtesy of RotoGrinders. Dollar values research courtesy of FootballGuys and stats quoted are from Pro Football Focus’ indispensable Premium Stats.

Check sites directly for price accuracy.

The Daily goes through the top Teams, QBs, RBs and Receivers and gives you a three-tiered look at the best plays. As always, check weather and lineups before games.

Get started on Fantasy Aces today. Or for an excellent DFS experience on mobile, get started on Swoopt.


Got questions? Like what you see on RotoAdvice? Keep coming back, check out our other quick entries and like us over on Facebook or Hit us on Twitter @HeyRotoAdvice or @JasonWalkerRoto

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire RotoAdvice: Week 7

devanteadams

He’s only the WR3 in Green Bay, but Davante Adams is emerging and in a good position to be a solid flex play the next two weeks.

As always, let’s take a look at who’s below the 50 percent owned in CBS leagues.

The Quarterbacks:

Last Week: Tannehill, Davis

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (43 percent)

INSTANT REPLAY: In Start 2-QB leagues, Tannehill can be a good #2 play. Tannehill has been a top 15 QB by Pro Football Focus Premium Stats, showing his efficiency. As the bye weeks continue, Tannehill is a really good play. END REPLAY — That’s what we wrote last week, and it remains true this week. If you need a bye week fill-in or are in a Start 2-QB league, Tannehill is a great option. Also has Bears and Jaguars the next two weeks.

Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (38 percent)

Didn’t have him on here last week as the Lions weren’t a good matchup to dive into owning Teddy. But like Tannehill above, Bridgewater is a worthy 2-QB league roster and bye-week fill-in. His next three games are against Buffalo, Tampa and Washington, three of the seven worst pass coverage defenses in the league.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (27 percent)

Blake will be passing a lot folks and last week was not an exception, gathering over 300+ yards in his effort against the Titans. He’s their guy and unless Captain Injury steps in, that’s not changing, so he’s a strong QB3 due to volume and opportunity and he has Cecil Shorts back (as long as that lasts) which enhances his efforts greatly.

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (8 percent)

He’s attempted 32 or more passes in four of his five games and has some undervalued targets in James Jones and Andre Holmes to pitch it to. He’s not efficient, but he is in place and is an alright option if very needy in deep, deep leagues due to the volume of passes he’ll attempt.

The Running Backs:

Last week: Hillman

Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns (33 percent)

Even with Ben Tate killing it, Crowell came through with 70+ yards and a TD. We’ve long had him in this space because he’s dependable for the 10 carry, 60 yards and a TD play for the week. He’s a strong RB4 right now in all formats and if Tate goes down again, Crowell goes up one tier at least.

Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (5 percent)

This time last season, a rookie running back emerged from the bowels of the depth chart to have a tremendous, fantasy league altering second half of the season. Now, Zac Stacy is watching his majority share lose value and Tre Mason emerged against the 49ers to make a play to get more playing time. He’s a roster stash at this point, but his 8 YPC effort against San Francisco at least shows his potential. He may likely gobble up the Benny Cunningham piece of the share before coming after Stacy’s. Stash him and watch how this develops.

All those Receiver type fellows:

Last week: Robinson, Hartline

Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars (34 percent)

Own him while he’s healthy, because Shorts came back with a fury against the Titans, getting 10 receptions and 103 yards. It’s the second 10-target game in three healthy ones for Shorts, who will be the biggest beneficiary of the volume of passes Blake Bortles will throw.

Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams (37 percent)

Our top TE waiver pickup again, Cook has averaged 10 targets a game while Austin Davis has taken snaps for St. Louis. Cook’s catch rate isn’t great but he is getting the volume and is a great play in leagues where the flex is WR/TE.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (10 percent)

The bell is ringing loud now, folks. You won’t have much more time to get this guy while he’s this available. Sure he’s the WR3 in Green Bay, but Lacy isn’t getting involved in the pass game as figured and there is no Jermichael Finley type TE on this Packers roster. With plenty of Aaron Rodgers love and passes to go around, Adams should be owned in 12 team leagues, especially those that go at least 18 players deep. Carolina and New Orleans are next, which should allow Adams to continue to shine.

Jarius Wright, Minnesota Vikings (10 percent)

He’s getting attention from Bridgewater, which is important. He’s more than his well owned teammate, Cordarrelle Patterson, is at this point. the Lions were a tough matchup and Wright still saw five total touches, including a 21-yard run. Last season they thought he’d fill the Percy Harvin spot in the Vikings playbook and even though Norv Turner is a different OC, it looks like Wright’s role hasn’t changed.

Got questions? Like what you see on RotoAdvice? Keep coming back, check out our other quick entries and like us over on Facebook or Hit us on Twitter @HeyRotoAdvice or @JasonWalkerRoto

Kevin Durant Injury — Impact to Daily Fantasy Basketball

reggiejacksonthunder

Kevin Durant’s injury will likely cost him the first 20 games of the season — who might be a bargain in DFS as a result?

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant has a fracture in his right foot that will cause him to be out almost two months, meaning he’ll miss the Thunder’s first quarter of the 2014-2015 season.

Last season, when teammate Russell Westbrook missed time  (Ed. note: Put Bryant here originally. He won a fantasy game for me with an INT return in 1998, so obviously I still feel like I owe him.), Durant increased his usage and load of the offense, making him a slight bargain as the season started, as much as a top tier play like Durant can be. With Durant out, it’s Westbrook’s turn to take an additional bump as Scott Brooks looks to use a variety of rotations to fill the minutes gap caused by Durant’s absence.

For a better bargain daily players will be looking to sixth man Reggie Jackson as a price margin play. Jackson took a nice third year player step forward last season, increasing his efficiency above replacement value for the first time in his young career. Jackson, like Westbrook, is a box score stuffer, putting up solid numbers in all the important DFS categories (13/4/4 in 28MPG).

Given additional minutes and usage, Jackson should be able to create some nice margin, even though his daily price should reflect his starting role, it will likely be below production level for the first week.

Another name to watch will be Jeremy Lamb who will be looking to take a similar third year step forward as Reggie Jackson now that there will be an approximate 20 game window to establish himself further. Lamb, after the trade of James Harden to Houston, did step up in his Year Two season, becoming more efficient as his minutes increased from his lightly used rookie year.

It’s possible that Perry Jones could see more time as his 6’11 frame lends more length replacement defensively to replace Durant, but Jones isn’t the offensive play that Lamb is, contributing more rebounding and defense to date than his fellow third year teammate. That’s not to say Jones couldn’t contribute offensively if given the chance, and therefore help daily players, it’s just that he hasn’t shown it yet in the NBA and his possession usage is about half as much as Lamb and Jackson, lending to those assumptions.

So for now watch the costs on Westbrook and Jackson as they could be underpriced across the industry initially and then keep an eye on Lamb’s contributions — as he could assume a low cost backcourt play like Jackson did in certain matchups last season.

Got questions? Like what you see on RotoAdvice? Keep coming back, check out our other quick entries and like us over on Facebook or Hit us on Twitter @HeyRotoAdvice or @JasonWalkerRoto

Deep Drivel: NFL Week 6 Recap and Commentary

murray2

DeMarco Murray tied Jim Brown’s record for 100-yard games to start the season as the Cowboys dominated the Seahawks in Week 6.

Colts 33, Texans 28: When you’re down 24 points and have Ryan Fitzpatrick as your QB, you can kiss any realistic comeback chances goodbye. Unless you have J.J. Watt, that is – who scored his 3rd touchdown of the season, more than LeSean McCoy and Calvin Johnson combined. Have the Texans considered putting him at QB as well? Andrew Luck (370 yards, 3 touchdowns) continues his assault on the league, and T.Y. Hilton exploded (223 yards).

Titans 16, Jaguars 14: Well, I guess someone had to win. The Titans are bad, but Jacksonville proved they’re even worse in losing perhaps the most winnable game left on their schedule. Blake Bortles continues to fling it around (336 yards) but gets absolutely no help from the pathetic Jaguar running game. Storm Johnson (10 carries for 21 yards) turned out to be piddling rain shower. And you have to feel a little bit badly for Bishop Sankey owners, who finally had their prayers answered with the eternally mediocre Shonn Greene out of the lineup in a dream matchup. Time for a coming out party! Or maybe not – 18 carries for 61 yards. Greene returns next week to take his job back. Ugh.

Ravens 48, Bucs 17: A few weeks ago the Bucs were humiliated by the Falcons, a game that was well over by halftime. They decided to top themselves by being out of this one by the end of the first quarter. I’m guessing that the 10% of fantasy teams that were starting Joe Flacco were pretty happy with his 5 TD passes. Is this the kind of discipline that Lovie Smith was supposed to bring to Tampa? Mike Glennon (314 yards) has turned out to be a pretty good garbage-time QB at least.

Broncos 31, Jets 17: Rex Ryan continues to see offense as a necessary evil. He’s assembled a lousy quarterback in Geno Smith and running game that never showed up in this one – a lousy 20 yards rushing from the backs. They still somehow managed to hang around with an extremely efficient Bronco offense, who even got 100 yards rushing out of Ronnie Hillman. And who needs Jimmy Graham? Julius Thomas (51 yards, 2 TD’s) is the best scoring TE in the game.

Lions 17, Vikings 3: This one was a real snoozer, as Teddy Bridgewater (3 interceptions) learned the hard way that he’s no longer facing the Falcons defense. At least the Vikings finally went away from the talentless Matt Asiata, who managed -5 yards on 2 carries (a long of -2). The Lions, knowing the Vikings couldn’t score, played so conservatively (and without Calvin Johnson) that Matt Stafford actually nodded off in the middle of a play.

Packers 27, Dolphins 24: Elite QB’s can tear your hearts out, and that’s exactly what Aaron Rodgers (282 yards, 3 TD’s) did to Miami in this one. After being dormant for the middle portion of the game, he drove down the field and threw the winning TD with seconds remaining. Jordy Nelson (9/107/1, with 16 targets) did his thing, and Randall Cobb scored his 7th TD in six games. Rodgers still isn’t getting any help from Eddie Lacy, however – 40 lousy yards.

Browns 31, Steelers 10: Whoa daddy! Did we really just witness the Browns steamrolling Pittsburgh? Cleveland even did it the old fashioned way, with 158 yards on the ground. The combination of Ben Tate (25-78-2) and Isaiah Crowell (11-77-1) were devastating, and Tate even made it to the end of the game without getting injured. Where’s my shocked face?

kramer

Patriots 37, Bills 22: Ever since the media and fans declared the Patriots dead and buried they have been walloping teams. How many owners actually cut Tom Brady (361 yards, 4 TD’s)? Whoops. The Kyle Orton Bills have picked up right where the E.J. Manuel Bills left off – in Suckville. Did the Buffalo brass really think Orton would come in and light it up? They should have left Orton and his embarrassing 1970’s porn ‘stache on the streets of Dallas.

Panthers 37, Bengals 37: Jeez, did this game finally end? I’m with so many others that hate the fact the NFL still allows ties. It’s no fun to tie – both teams walked off the field feeling like they lost. Why not just start a new overtime? If that means playing all your backups, so be it – play until there’s a winner.

Cameron Newton finally looked like his old self, with 284 passing and 107 rushing, numbers that were cringe-worthy if you were playing against him (like I was). And what happened to the Bengals great defense? They’ve looked like the Falcons the last couple of weeks. Andy Dalton (323 yards, 2 TD’s) managed a big game even without A.J. Green.

Chargers 31, Raiders 28: Rookie David Carr (283 yards, 4 TD’s) actually gave this hapless Raiders team some signs of life. Philip Rivers (313 yards, 3 TD’s) and Branden Oliver (26-101-1) didn’t get a whole lot of resistance from Oakland’s perpetually bumbling defense.

Bears 27, Falcons 13: Like every other QB, Jay Cutler (381 yards, 1 TD) lit up when he found out he was facing the worst-in-the-league Falcons defense. Even Matt Forte finally broke out with a couple of touchdowns. It was a very disappointing day for Falcons players, as their owners were almost certainly expecting a shootout that never happened. They couldn’t pass or run – otherwise they were in great shape.

Cardinals 30, Redskins 20: Noodle-armed Carson Palmer (250 yards, 2 TD’s) returned and looked better than he had any business doing. Kirk Cousins racked up 354 yards primarily in garbage time, but included his typical 3 picks. I’m starting to think RG3 may get his starting job back after all.

Cowboys 30, Seahawks 23: As if Cowboys fans weren’t insufferable enough, somehow they managed to go into Seattle and walk out winners. Demarco Murray (29-115-1) continued his torrid play. Did you read all week about how the coaches were going to ease his carries? Whoops, guess again. It’s a miracle he’s held up this long, and I strongly advise you to sell high. Strongly. There’s no reason to think Murray will be around for the fantasy playoffs at this pace. And what a letdown for Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch owners – the Dallas defense is a joke.

See you next week.

Aaron Bland is the founder of the Florida Gators Message Board GatorChatter.com. His Deep Drivel appears every Monday on RotoAdvice and you can reach him on Twitter @AaronBlandRoto

Got questions? Like what you see on RotoAdvice? Keep coming back, check out our other quick entries and like us over on Facebook or Hit us on Twitter @HeyRotoAdvice or @JasonWalkerRoto

 

 

 

 

Daily Fantasy Football Picks from RotoAdvice: Week 6

lynch

Check out the Daily RotoAdvice Fantasy Football Picks where this guy is in Beast Mode at home, always.

Weather and schedules courtesy of RotoGrinders. Dollar values research courtesy of FootballGuys and stats quoted are from Pro Football Focus’ indispensable Premium Stats.

Check sites directly for price accuracy.

The Daily goes through the top Teams, QBs, RBs and Receivers and gives you a three-tiered look at the best plays. As always, check weather and lineups before games.

Get started on Fantasy Aces today. Or for an excellent DFS experience on mobile, get started on Swoopt.

 

The Slate (Week Six):

 

SUN, OCT 12

TIME (ET)

TV

LOCATION

Jacksonville at Tennessee

1:00 PM

CBS

LP Field

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

1:00 PM

CBS

Raymond James Stadium

Denver at NY Jets

1:00 PM

CBS

MetLife Stadium

Detroit at Minnesota

1:00 PM

FOX

TCF Bank Stadium

New England at Buffalo

1:00 PM

FOX

Ralph Wilson Stadium

Carolina at Cincinnati

1:00 PM

FOX

Paul Brown Stadium

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

1:00 PM

CBS

FirstEnergy Stadium

Green Bay at Miami

1:00 PM

FOX

Sun Life Stadium

San Diego at Oakland

4:05 PM

CBS

O.co Coliseum

Chicago at Atlanta

4:25 PM

FOX

Georgia Dome

Dallas at Seattle

4:25 PM

FOX

CenturyLink Field

Washington at Arizona

4:25 PM

FOX

U of Phoenix Stadium

NY Giants at Philadelphia

8:30 PM

NBC

Lincoln Financial Field

MON, OCT 13

TIME (ET)

TV

LOCATION

San Francisco at St. Louis

8:30 PM

Edward Jones Dome

·Bye: Kansas City, New Orleans

 

Weather Watch:

  • NONE! (as of this posting)

 

Top Teams To Target:

  • Chicago Bears AND Atlanta Falcons (in Atlanta)

  • Denver Broncos @ New York Jets

  • Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys

 

The Three-Tiered Quarterbacks:

High $$$ QB:

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos @ New York Jets

The Jets are the sixth worst pass coverage and #1 overall against the run. It’s not like you have to give Peyton a reason to throw, but there’s a pretty good one right there. I’m sure Ryan will try to blitz Peyton’s psyche into a tizzy, but unlike the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, I say Manning burns them quite a bit.

MID-TIER QB:

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas

Dallas has been getting gashed by the run (see Top Tier RB for that one), but somehow Lynch being successful doesn’t correlate with Wilson have a bad game. Thusly, at home, I like Wilson to have a very nice game at the Cowboys’ expense.

DISCOUNT RACK QB:

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Bortles, unlike Blaine Gabbert before him, is a really good passer. The Jags defense is not good, however, and even the Titans with their mixed up crazy QB situation should be able to take advantage, making Jacksonville have to pass their way to keep up.

WHO WE’RE STARTING THIS WEEKWilson

The Three-Tiered Running Backs

High $$$ RB:

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas

The Cowboys are league worst against the run, so, especially at home, Lynch is strong play. At home since 2010, Lynch has averaged 100 yards and a touchdown over 32 games.

MID-TIER RB:

Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington

The only caveat here is that if neither Palmer nor Stanton plays, Washington may just put all 11 defenders on Ellington and take their chances. Washington is sixth worst against the run and league worst against the pass, so who knows what poison they’ll pick. Ellington, either rushing or receiving, should be one of the better value picks this week.

DISCOUNT RACK RB:

Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville

We said last week in this space: Will the Titans finally proceed with the Sankey era in Nashville? The only thing holding Sankey back is his opportunity within the Titans offense, something Coach Ken Whisenhunt says he is going to get. The Browns have not been good against the run this far and Sankey should be able to take advantage. Now, subtract Cleveland and add Jacksonville and if it doesn’t happen this week, we’ll send a singing telegram to Coach Whizz to tell him about it.

WHO WE’RE STARTING: Lynch and Ellington

The Three-Tiered Receivers (WR/TE):

High $$$ Receiver:

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland

Another tremendous matchup for Brown, who has been making mincemeat of his favorables so far. Cleveland is seventh worst in pass coverage, with Joe Haden ranking 95th out of 102 cornerbacks who have played 25% of their defensive snaps, with a lot of the damage being done by the Steelers in Week 1 at Pittsburgh.

MID-TIER Receiver:

Golden Tate, Detroit Lions @ Minnesota

We might not see Calvin Johnson and if that’s the case, Tate steps into the high volume passing offense as the #1 option against a less than average Vikings pass defense unit.

DISCOUNT RACK Receiver:

Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay

Call it what you will, a hunch, women’s intuition, but the other Smith on the Ravens is due from some regression to the mean here as his drop rates have been epic so far this season. Joe Flacco is still throwing him the deep ball, getting loose for a couple of deep passes per game, but Smith has dropped two of those and has four drops for the season. Against a Buccaneer defense that ranks fourth worst in pass coverage, Smith could provide a nice GPP boost since he likely won’t be rostered much due to his slump.

WHO WE’RE STARTING: Brown, Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, Tim Wright

More in the Rack (All Positions):

Larry Donnell, TE, New York Giants (Back so soon? Donnell still a great target, especially with the Eagles being better than advertised against the run)

Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos (With Ball out, Hillman steps up, but the Jets have been stingy vs the run game. Love the price, not the matchup.)

Jarius Wright, WR, Minnesota Vikings (Detroit is tough against the run and Bridgewater targeted Wright a bunch as Norv Turner has turned to a Seattle-esque type offense)

Storm Johnson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (Someone who is going to be highly owned since Gerhart is likely out against a Titans defense who has been miserable against the run)

Tim Wright, TE, New England Patriots (Limited snap engagement last week should have signaled to Bill Belichick that Wright is ready for more to fill the role that the Pats haven’t been able to fill since Aaron Hernandez was arrested. The warning here is that it’s the Patriots, so anything goes.)

Mike Glennon, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Not as sure about him this week because the Ravens pass rush has been good and the Bucs’ protection is bad. However, Glennon slings it around good and the Ravens coverage hasn’t been as good as their rush, so Glennon could be a sneaky play)

Jeremy Ross, WR, Detroit Lions (If Calvin is out, which it looks like right now, then Tate steps up as we indicated above and Ross becomes the WR2. Ross has done well when targeted and has been very elusive after the catch.)

Got questions? Like what you see on RotoAdvice? Keep coming back, check out our other quick entries and like us over on Facebook or Hit us on Twitter @HeyRotoAdvice or @JasonWalkerRoto

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire RotoAdvice: Week 6

Ronnie-Hillman

With Montee Ball out, Ronnie Hillman becomes a good flex play in all leagues.

As always, let’s take a look at who’s below the 50 percent owned in CBS leagues.

The Quarterbacks:

Last Week: Bridgewater, Glennon

Bridgewater, Bortles and Glennon continue to be good pickups in bye week situations in Start 2-QB leagues.

Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins (43 percent)

In Start 2-QB leagues, Tannehill can be a good #2 play. Tannehill has been a top 15 QB by Pro Football Focus Premium Stats, showing his efficiency. As the bye weeks continue, Tannehill is a really good play.

Austin Davis, Rams (10 percent)

Despite what was said before the bye week, when the Rams came back, it was Davis who was the QB and he, like he did in Week 3, lit it up for a massive game. His next two games, versus San Francisco and Seattle, should be more opportunity to pass, making Davis a good bye week play in Start 2-QB leagues.

The Running Backs:

Last week: Crowell, McKinnon, Oliver

Ben Tate returned and was far too effective to allow West/Crowell any breathing room. The Vikings trailed the Packers, limiting McKinnon’s role and Branden Oliver exploded against the Jets for 182 total yards and two touchdowns.

Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos (11 percent)

With Montee Ball out for a bit, Hillman takes over as the lead back. Hillman looked alright in the preseason and did fine in relief in Week Five. As long as Ball is out, Hillman is a terrific flex play while he has the job.

All those Receiver type fellows:

Last week: Cook, Beckham, Woods, LaFell

A mixed bag from last week, with Cook leading the Rams with 10 targets, Beckham catching a TD on a 4/44 day, Woods with only four targets with Kyle Orton at QB and LaFell falling under the New England inconsistency curse.

Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (41 percent)

With almost 10 targets per week and the Jaguars passing a lot after being behind, Robinson has emerged, especially with Cecil Shorts being hurt.

Brian Hartline, Miami Dolphins (34 percent)

A good PPR play, Hartline is getting good targets from Tannehill. Hartline can occasionally have a big game, but the typical 7-8 target, 60-75 yard games are what Hartline  should be good for.

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