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Three-Shift Game Watch:
Three-Shift games are those that could be so one-sided that the primaries on the teams don’t play their last shift, the lucrative fourth quarter shift, and therefore have their usual production limited.
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons (Pistons -13.5)
Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe have super sweet matchups here, but it may all be for naught if the game is the runaway like the last Knicks road venture against the Celtics. Note that Langston Galloway still played 39 minutes in that game and will likely have to do so again with Calderon out.
Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks (Hawks -12)
Not as certain this will go so one-sided as the Hawks tend to pull away late rather than flush teams early. Still, worth watching if you’re going with Al Horford or Paul Millsap tonight. Seems as if Vucevic plays a large amount of minutes no matter what, but if the Hawks do roll early, could suffer.
Top Plays in the…:
Top Tier (5.5K<):
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland ($7,550)
Westbrook is unchecked right now in terms of shot attempts and since DraftStreet isn’t around to mark off for poor shooting, Westy has the volume to shoot his way into the top of the top tier every night. With that kind of shot volume combined with his all around the ballness, Westy is still a good value, even at 7.55K
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis ($6,800)
Paul keeps it going without Blake in the lineup, doing it against the Rockets the last time out. Before you get spooked by playing in Memphis, consider that over the last three weeks, Memphis has been the third most generous to opposing point guards.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($6,600)
His price is down a little, but the matchup isn’t as bad as it might appear with Ibaka there and even with two sore thumbs, Aldridge continues to shoot, shoot, shoot. A tremendous contrarian play in tourneys tonight.
Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic @ Atlanta ($6,250)
Might be too rich for your blood, but the Hawks have given up the third most FP over the last three weeks, per game, to opposing fives. Vucevic can gobble up a lot of boards, too, as the Hawks don’t often concern themselves with OREB.
Al Jefferson, Charlotte Hornets @ Boston ($5,850)
Every time I think Al has a good matchup, he flops. But, I can’t dwell in the past so I have to like the matchup against the fifth worst C’s in a slightly higher-pace game than the Hornets usually engage.
Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings vs. San Antonio ($5,650)
He’ll likely have Kawhi on him, which will scare off some suitors, but Gay is one of the highest volume shooters in the game and he won’t have much to defer to tonight if Cousins is out and with Collison gone. He’ll be the first and second option for Andre Miller to choose from tonight.
Mid Tier (4.6K-5.5K):
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat @ New Orleans ($5,500)
He finally was allowed to stay up late by nanny Eric Spoelstra in the overtime game against the Magic, so maybe that will inspire Spo to stretch the big fella’s minutes more regularly. Without Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson, there aren’t many guys on the Pelicans that could cause Hassan to get into foul trouble, so he has 40FP upside tonight.
Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz @ Denver ($5,150)
Favors gets a banged up and inconsistent Nuggets frontcourt and should continue his consistent, mid 30s FP scoring in a paced-up game in Denver.
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz @ Denver ($4,900)
Oh hey, we should include Gobert also, going against the fourth worst shooting team in a usually up tempo spot in Denver. As long as he can avoid J.J. Hickson getting him into foul trouble, Gobert has a strong game coming.
Terrence Jones, Houston Rockets vs. Brooklyn ($4,850)
Mid 30s game have become the norm for Jones, who gets a surprisingly giving Nets frontcourt tonight. Jones has been getting plenty of rebounds and blocks and the Nets are bottom ten in shooting and been around the league average in getting their shots blocked.
Reggie Jackson, Detroit Pistons vs. New York ($4,800)
Even in a blowout, 30 minutes of Jackson could still get 35FP. He shoots. He scores. Jackson has 26% usage his last game against the Cavs, where he was super efficient against a defense that scores similarly vs. PG to Cleveland.
Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers ($4,700)
At SF, where Middleton tends to spend about half his time, the Lakers are not good at the defense. Middleton is at good price in a sleepy game that will wrap up this huge slate of games.
Discount Rack (<4.6K):
Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls vs. Minnesota ($4,500)
There will be a lot of players on Gibson tonight as Pau Gasol is out and the Timberwolves give up a lot of points to PFs.
Trey Burke, Utah Jazz @ Denver ($4,400)
Burke gets the sad-sack Nuggets defense, once proud. Nugget PG have been plowed over in the last three weeks, giving up the most points to opposing PG. Burke takes a surprising amount of shots per 36 minutes and while he’ll likely only play 30, he use up a lot of possessions, going well over 30% in two of his last three games, both wins.
Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets vs. Utah ($4,100)
The Jazz defense has been stout lately, but Gallinari will hoist them no matter what and the Nuggets will need him to tonight, so he’s a good value down here.
Aaron Brooks, Chicago Bulls vs. Minnesota ($3,950)
The Timberwolves are no puppies, landing in the top 10 in PG defense over the last three weeks, but it’s hard to pass on the volume shooting and scoring of Brooks on a Rose-less Bulls squad with no Pau Gasol.
Other quick ones: Markel Brown, Nets and Joffrey Lauvergne, Nuggets (3K)
Both guys getting rotation run and can offer 15-20FP so you can get another top tier player.
Good luck tonight!
|Friday, February 27|
|MATCHUP||TIME (ET)||AWAY TV||HOME TV||NAT TV|
|Orlando at Atlanta||7:30 PM||FSFL||SPSO|
|Cleveland at Indiana||7:00 PM||FSOH||FSMW|
|Washington at Philadelphia||7:00 PM||CNSW||CSN|
|Charlotte at Boston||7:30 PM||SPSO||CSNN|
|New York at Detroit||7:30 PM||MSG||FSDT|
|Golden State at Toronto||7:30 PM||CSNB||TSN|
|Minnesota at Chicago||8:00 PM||FSN|
|Brooklyn at Houston||8:00 PM||YES||ROOT|
|LA Clippers at Memphis||8:00 PM||FSWHD||SPSO|
|Miami at New Orleans||8:00 PM||SUN|
|Utah at Denver||9:00 PM||ROOT||ALT|
|San Antonio at Sacramento||10:00 PM||KENS||CSAC|
|Milwaukee at LA Lakers||10:30 PM||FSWI||TWC SN|
|Oklahoma City at Portland||10:30 PM||FSOK||CSNN|